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Hot Topic (More than 30 Replies) ZIP Report (Read 2354 times)
Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #75 - Dec 4th, 2018 at 11:53pm
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Marty Foote wrote on Dec 4th, 2018 at 9:59pm:
davflaws wrote on Dec 4th, 2018 at 8:30pm:
I think I am almost done (yet again). I think I understand that you disapprove of Zip because they are investigating whether aerial 1080 can be  used as part of a strategy to remove all possums from an area. You believe that they can't and that they know they can't and that they are deliberately using "bad science" to give false results to show that they can. You believe that the scientists they employ are either ignorant or dishonest.

When I dig down into your claims (and I have put a few hours in - since the subject seems important), what I get is that you believe the ZIP monitoring is shonky because it started too soon and didn't last long enough, and that your conclusion/belief is based (as far as I have been able to tell) on a 2010 paper where the "bounce back" in possum numbers after immediate post drop monitoring by RTC was impossibly large, leading to the conclusion  that immediate RTC monitoring underestimated the kill.

We have a national standard for monitoring. It doesn't specify a 4 month waiting period. You obviously believe it should.

The Zip monitoring exceeds the standard, but you are unhappy with  a 2 month monitoring period. Even though 83000+ observations (including cameras) failed to indicate a possum, you believe there are still some there. Have you tried to discuss your concerns with Zip?

Since I still know some working scientists, I could probably engage with Zip and find out what they have planned in the way of ongoing monitoring. If I find time to do that - have I adequately understood your position as I have outlined it above?


davflaws,

I have got no idea where you are coming from except that you are behaving very much like the TH of old, and I notice he is not involved in these discussions any more.

1) The study that I submitted was published in 2001, not 2010.

2) Everything I have stated, about the way that ZIP has gone about proving the "1080-to-zero" theory of possum eradication, goes against everything that a number of AgResearch, DSIR, LandCare, DOC, MPI, etc scientists have stated when they have studied possums and the ability of poison to kill every living possum in a particular area.

3) OSPRI has even proved that only 80-90% of the possum population can be killed, in controlled environments, with 1080 poison laced baits.

4) The only times that aerial applied 1080 poison can be proved to kill 100% of the possums is when the monitoring is done immediately after the 1080 is applied.

5) Every single time that the possum population is monitored, at least 4 months after 1080 has been applied, there are possums found.

6) You tell me why ZIP should be believed, as to eradicating possums, when all they are doing is timing their possum monitoring in a way that ZIP knows will give a zero recording and then ZIP is not following up, at a later date, that ZIP knows will prove their zero possum claims to be false.

7) You are telling us that you have been scientifically trained and that you believe in the scientific principles that underlie the ZIP monitoring. There are many scientists that believe that the ZIP way of doing things is wrong and you might live to professionally regret staking your own scientific opinion to the ZIP mast.


You are right that the published date is 2010, however, the data goes back as far as the 1990's and I have read the same information in many earlier published reports. So much for your "few hours" of digging that doesn't even touch on the other data I have presented over the years.

I suggest that you do the due diligence that you should have always done before making an opinion.

I would suggest that you make contact with DSIR and AgResearch scientists that were operating in the 1980's and early 1990's to get a good overview of what was actually going on...I would also suggest that you take anything that Paul Livingston, and his mates, say with a "grain of salt" as he has a "Queens Honour Award" to protect, that was given to him as a result of the work he did to promote the success of the AHB/TBFree/OSPRI aerial 1080 and possum TB propaganda campaign.

Paul Livingston is one of a number of scientists that I worked with, in the early days, and Paul is one of the few scientists that I will have nothing to do with today.

I would also suggest that you demand that all the earlier reports, not being made publicly available by OSPRI and DOC, be released for public consumption, via internet links, so that you, and everyone else, are able to view all the same information, at the same time, without having to go through the long and involved process of using the Official Information Act and then getting the information out to people to view after the information is finally released.

Good luck with your investigations and inquiries.
  
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #76 - Dec 5th, 2018 at 11:35am
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Here is a quote from a letter Lou Sanson sent to me dated 29 August 2014.

"While the Department aims to conduct its post control monitoring approximately 4 months after the operation, it is not always practicable, especially where contractors (ground and aerial) want immediate payment."

This is actually a very rare statement coming from DOC up to the time the letter was written. This type of statement has always been associated with OSPRI.

Sanson accepts that DOC normally waits for 4 months, with the discussion, this statement refers to, being centered around aerial 1080 operations.

Sanson goes onto to deliberately confuse the issue by talking about "ground and aerial" contractors wanting immediate payment. The reasons why we know that Sanson is trying to deliberately confuse the issue are:

1) Aerial 1080 contractors have never been paid on output post operation results, they have always been paid on input contracts. In the early 1990's, when most of the ground control contracts were paid on output results, OSPRI tried to get the aerial 1080 application contractors to also sign output contracts. The aerial 1080 contractors refused to sign output contracts and would only apply 1080 under the terms of input contracts.

2) Ground control operations do not have the same problems with monitoring immediately after the contractor has finished, as the work will have taken place over a time period that ensures the reasons that affect the post aerial 1080 monitoring result, are not encountered.

Links:

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.178.8831&rep=rep1&type=...

Aerial 1080 operations to maximise biodiversity protection DOC RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT SERIES 216, Kerry P. Brown and Stephen C. Urlich

Page 11, 4.2.3. Page 27, 6.10 paragraph 3.

I finally found one that states that Nugent and Whitord found, in 2001, that:   "Unfortunately, trap-catch under-estimates possum abundance (and overestimates kills) immediately after control (Nugent, Whitford et al. 2001)"
  
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #77 - Dec 5th, 2018 at 11:55am
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Another one:

Animal Health Board Project No. R-10623 Are  some  possums  untrappable,  unpoisonable,  and  therefore unmonitorable?

https://mail.google.com/mail/?tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgxvzLrQQWHPlfRlhnWgGmCZQrmph?comp
ose=GTvVlcSGLPsDPnvNndwQxknlFDPLMJBKNfBzrvzXxvPpxNZGWJWrLKPRbMncgnDgTJxrcGgjftfl
W
  
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davflaws
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #78 - Dec 5th, 2018 at 2:37pm
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Thank you Marty. That is very helpful. There are a couple of issues that I would like to follow with your assistance

  1. Should the standard protocol specify a timeframe? If so - what should it be and how would we know?

    Do Zip need to do more monitoring to remove any remaining doubt whether all possums were killed or some remain? If so - how should it be done and how would we know?


I need to do more reading and a short course in acronyms.
Then I will contact Zip and ask them what they plan to do about ongoing monitoring.
Then I will think about who to talk to about the standard protocol.
  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #79 - Dec 5th, 2018 at 5:58pm
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Quote:
I have got no idea where you are coming from except that you are behaving very much like the TH of old, and I notice he is not involved in these discussions any more.

Marty Foote,
WTF have I got to do with this?, why would I be silly enough to get dragged into your continual theories, and deliberate spin you put on anything, and constant personal attacks. which only shows you need to resort to that crap because the so called "facts" you constantly claim, rarely if ever get proven and probably don't exist. You continual personalization of anything is just childish but I doubt you will aver except that because you simply seem incapable of comprehending what your doing

I'd sooner spend my time hunting than read  drivel, perhaps you should try it, instead of using the forum as your soapbox

  
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #80 - Dec 5th, 2018 at 7:04pm
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davflaws wrote on Dec 5th, 2018 at 2:37pm:
Thank you Marty. That is very helpful. There are a couple of issues that I would like to follow with your assistance

  1. Should the standard protocol specify a timeframe? If so - what should it be and how would we know?

    Do Zip need to do more monitoring to remove any remaining doubt whether all possums were killed or some remain? If so - how should it be done and how would we know?


I need to do more reading and a short course in acronyms.
Then I will contact Zip and ask them what they plan to do about ongoing monitoring.
Then I will think about who to talk to about the standard protocol.


Historically, the scientists have always quoted at least 4 months. I have read reports, that I can't find with internet searches now, that stipulated 5-6 months.

There is no great rush to monitor aerial 1080 operations as nobody looses financially if the 4 plus months is waited out. The only problem with waiting is that many of the very low 0-5%RTC's, being achieved immediately after, will rise to above the stated targets.

When I have analysed the possum data, by looking at the immediately after results and then looked at the next pre or trend monitor you are able to estimate what the real post result should have been. My estimation is that the average post 1080 possum result is around 6-8%RTC. There have been possum operations that have waited out the 4 months and recorded double figure results, combine this with an increase in the result immediately after and you can see how easy it would be to come up with an average that is not reaching the possum density targets.

NPCA is an arms length organisation that was created to do stuff that meant that DOC and OSPRI could distance themselves from problems like this one, even though they are actually controlling how NPCA works. My understanding is that NPCA is either going to be disbanded and absorbed into MPI or a new organisation will be set up that will have a larger membership base so that there can be better oversight and discussion about what is going on and being decided.

With or without NPCA, DOC and OSPRI should have always been accountable for the way they monitor. The people that should be making changes are the individual operations managers as they are, actually, technically liable, according to the SOP rules, and when we reach the stage where individuals can be held accountable, for their decisions, we will cease to have these problems as politicians won't be able to force good operations managers to sign off on bad decisions.

As far as ZIP goes, I have been impressed by some of their ground control, I wouldn't go about doing some of the work the way they have, however, I'm a practical trapper and ZIP is reliant on scientific advice that can go to extremes sometimes, give it time, and as ZIP starts listening to experienced trappers their trapping operations will become more efficient.

ZIP's problem is that ZIP has decided that they want to say they can eradicate possums and rats very quickly using 1080. In order to do this they have to ignore historical scientific advice and design brand new systems that look good, on paper, while not actually performing any better than historical aerial 1080 operations have.
  
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gonehuntin
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #81 - Dec 6th, 2018 at 5:12pm
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marty out of interest whats stopped you doin a trip tnd haast to trap the zip area to see for yourself? I know any finds would be discredited by most but would be interesting to see someone elses results
  
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #82 - yesterday at 9:03pm
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gonehuntin wrote on Dec 6th, 2018 at 5:12pm:
marty out of interest whats stopped you doin a trip tnd haast to trap the zip area to see for yourself? I know any finds would be discredited by most but would be interesting to see someone elses results


All the indications, from your previous posts, indicate, to me, that you are a young pup.

Young pups do have opinions, and sometimes those opinions do have a place on a particular hunt, however, as anyone knows, that has trained young pups, the experience of the older dogs, combined with the enthusiasm of the young pups, is what makes a good team that can bring down that big boar that everyone has been chasing for years.

I could go down to the ZIP block and monitor, as you suggest.

I'm an old dog and I don't see the point of doing so, as I have already proved my point without doing the work you expect me to do.

You, on the other hand, thinks that your idea is really good, so long as someone else does the work. This is young pup thinking, without the young pup enthusiasm, and we will know that you have moved into a more mature hunter stage when you are prepared to do what you are asking someone else to do and be able to inform your audience of what you have already done.


  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #83 - Today at 2:48pm
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Marty Foote wrote yesterday at 9:03pm:
gonehuntin wrote on Dec 6th, 2018 at 5:12pm:
marty out of interest whats stopped you doin a trip tnd haast to trap the zip area to see for yourself? I know any finds would be discredited by most but would be interesting to see someone elses results


All the indications, from your previous posts, indicate, to me, that you are a young pup.

Young pups do have opinions, and sometimes those opinions do have a place on a particular hunt, however, as anyone knows, that has trained young pups, the experience of the older dogs, combined with the enthusiasm of the young pups, is what makes a good team that can bring down that big boar that everyone has been chasing for years.

I could go down to the ZIP block and monitor, as you suggest.

I'm an old dog and I don't see the point of doing so, as I have already proved my point without doing the work you expect me to do.

You, on the other hand, thinks that your idea is really good, so long as someone else does the work. This is young pup thinking, without the young pup enthusiasm, and we will know that you have moved into a more mature hunter stage when you are prepared to do what you are asking someone else to do and be able to inform your audience of what you have already done.




What point is it that you have proven Marty?

ZIP say they monitored a 100% kill of the targets, using methodology I think that was consistent with the National Standard.

You say their monitoring was scientifically flawed and have presented an argument about past custom and practice.

What I don't understand is who is actually correct, and what is proven. At the current time it seems that ZIP have the high ground because they have actually scientifically monitored and published the results - all you have done is challenged their methodology.
  

Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.......
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