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Hot Topic (More than 30 Replies) ZIP Report (Read 2358 times)
BC
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ZIP Report
Nov 16th, 2018 at 12:54pm
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Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.......
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #1 - Nov 16th, 2018 at 5:38pm
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BC wrote on Nov 16th, 2018 at 12:54pm:


A very well written PR document.

Tell me how they expect to eradicate possums with 1080 when, over the last 30 years, there have been numerous scientific studies done, in controlled environments, some of them commissioned by OSPRI, that show that 10-20% of the possum population survive 1080 poisoning, either, because the possums are bait-averse (will not eat any novel food items presented to them) or are poison-shy as a result of being sublethally poisoned during previous poison operations.

The only way that it can be shown that all the possums have been killed, by 1080, is if the monitoring is manipulated to show a zero possum population.

Numerous scientific reports have shown that OSPRI has done exactly this, since 1990, by ignoring scientific advice, as to the timing of the monitoring, and then claiming possum kills that never occurred, as has been documented in numerous scientific studies that were commissioned to look at the underestimation of possum population densities after aerial 1080 operations.

ZIP is using the same monitoring manipulation that OSPRI has always used.
  
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davflaws
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #2 - Nov 16th, 2018 at 9:01pm
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Thanks for posting the link. I knew there was an outfit that had set up a study program to provide good "science based" information focused on a remove and protect model, but I had been too lazy or busy to follow up.

Marty - I know that you don't believe it is possible to reduce possum numbers to zero using aerially applied bait . I know that you believe that OSPRI deliberately falsify the results of the monitoring they do in order to deny trappers the opportunity to show that they can do a better job.

What I don't know is why you believe that ZIP falsify their results.

Please tell us.
  
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #3 - Nov 16th, 2018 at 10:03pm
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davflaws wrote on Nov 16th, 2018 at 9:01pm:
Thanks for posting the link. I knew there was an outfit that had set up a study program to provide good "science based" information focused on a remove and protect model, but I had been too lazy or busy to follow up.

Marty - I know that you don't believe it is possible to reduce possum numbers to zero using aerially applied bait . I know that you believe that OSPRI deliberately falsify the results of the monitoring they do in order to deny trappers the opportunity to show that they can do a better job.

What I don't know is why you believe that ZIP falsify their results.

Please tell us.


The way that AHB/TBFree/OSPRI has manipulated the post 1080 operational results has been to monitor possums immediately after the 1080 operation. The scientific advice, for the last 30 years, has been to wait at least 4 months before monitoring possum population densities after aerial 1080 operations.

ZIP is proving that they have killed all the possums by monitoring immediately after the aerial 1080 operation in exactly the same way as OSPRI has been doing, knowing, full well, that they were underestimating the post-1080 surviving possum population.

My understanding of good science is that if you have replicated, controlled environments whereby possums, caught from different environments, are offered lots of different foods, some poisoned and some not poisoned, and some possums cannot be killed then that should logically show that a percentage of the possum population cannot be killed by offering 1080 poisoned baits.

All the scientific studies came to the conclusion that 10-20% of the possums cannot be expected to be killed by offering them novel food items laced with 1080 poison.

I am not sure why you are asking your question, as it has been accepted, by both OSPRI and DOC, that the post 1080 possum monitoring has been underestimating the possum population density.

All I have said is that ZIP is using the same flawed possum monitoring, that OSPRI and DOC have accepted is flawed, in ZIP's attempt to convince the NZ taxpayer, as well as private investors, to give millions of dollars, to ZIP, to do what ZIP already knows is not possible.
  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #4 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 5:49am
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It dosen't strike me as a propaganda statement, rather a briefing on the trials they are doing in an effort to limit by kill of important species.
I would applaud that kind of openness. With the caveat that end results no matter the outcome are shared as openly.
  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #5 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 7:42am
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would be interested to see how long before the re 1080 the area again,  if results are as claimed then they shouldnt have to ever treat it again
  
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davflaws
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #6 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 8:22am
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Marty Foote wrote on Nov 16th, 2018 at 10:03pm:
All I have said is that ZIP is using the same flawed possum monitoring, that OSPRI and DOC have accepted is flawed, in ZIP's attempt to convince the NZ taxpayer, as well as private investors, to give millions of dollars, to ZIP, to do what ZIP already knows is not possible.


Yes - and what I am asking is how you know that ZIP is using flawed monitoring methods. Have you got a link to what ZIP is doing in realtion to monitoring.
  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #7 - Nov 17th, 2018 at 9:35am
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gonehuntin wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 7:42am:
would be interested to see how long before the re 1080 the area again,  if results are as claimed then they shouldnt have to ever treat it again


No it doesnt work like that. You know that as well as I. I think you missed your bowl of cornflakes this morning.  Grin

if it did work like that then Marty would also only have to ever trap an area once.
  

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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #8 - Nov 18th, 2018 at 12:19pm
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Lets not  get scratchy people...the promoters of 1080 may just appear  Huh
  

Wrinkles are the map of your soulful journey,,,you'd be lost without them,,
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #9 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 5:50pm
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davflaws wrote on Nov 17th, 2018 at 8:22am:
Marty Foote wrote on Nov 16th, 2018 at 10:03pm:
All I have said is that ZIP is using the same flawed possum monitoring, that OSPRI and DOC have accepted is flawed, in ZIP's attempt to convince the NZ taxpayer, as well as private investors, to give millions of dollars, to ZIP, to do what ZIP already knows is not possible.


Yes - and what I am asking is how you know that ZIP is using flawed monitoring methods. Have you got a link to what ZIP is doing in realtion to monitoring.


It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that ZIP already knows that what they are doing is nothing more than a PR sales pitch.

I draw to your attention the following:

1) AHB/TBFree/OSPRI have always know that monitoring possums immediately after aerial 1080 operations, as ZIP is currently doing. will always underestimate the surviving possum population density and overestimate the possum kill.

2) This scientific acknowledgement goes back as far as the DSIR days and some of the, older, LandCare scientists are rather embarrassed by what is now being promoted by DOC and OSPRI regarding the way that aerial 1080 operations are being monitored.

3) As far as ZIP goes, ZIP knows, full well, that aerial 1080 is never going to eradicate possums and ZIP is doing the same monitoring stuff that OSPRI and DOC have been doing for the last thirty years, knowing, full well, that they were never killing the numbers of possums claimed..
  
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davflaws
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #10 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 6:37pm
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Marty Foote wrote on Nov 19th, 2018 at 5:50pm:
1) AHB/TBFree/OSPRI have always know that monitoring possums immediately after aerial 1080 operations, as ZIP is currently doing. will always underestimate the surviving possum population density and overestimate the possum kill.




How do you know what ZIP is currently doing and planning to do? If you have a link or a ref - please post it. If you haven't - please say so.






  
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #11 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 7:21pm
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #12 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 7:25pm
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davflaws wrote on Nov 19th, 2018 at 6:37pm:
Marty Foote wrote on Nov 19th, 2018 at 5:50pm:
1) AHB/TBFree/OSPRI have always know that monitoring possums immediately after aerial 1080 operations, as ZIP is currently doing. will always underestimate the surviving possum population density and overestimate the possum kill.




How do you know what ZIP is currently doing and planning to do? If you have a link or a ref - please post it. If you haven't - please say so.


Go and have a look that ZIP's own website...Look at the the ZIP timing of their own possum monitoring....It is the same as all of the OSPRI monitoring and some of the DOC monitoring.

I don't need to post it...You can go and look for yourself, on all three websites (ZIP,OSPRI and DOC).

Then you might want to bring yourself up to speed on a 30 year old scientific advisement, that DSIR made, before AHB was formed, that stated that "at least 4 months should elapse before any possum monitoring after any aerial 1080 operation". AND...That scientific advisement has never been revoked, by the scientific community, AND, in point of fact, has been endorsed by a number of scientific reports written over the last 25 years.
  
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BC
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #13 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 8:06pm
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These look like a competent bunch of people:

http://zip.org.nz/who/#whoweare
  

Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.......
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Marty Foote
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Re: ZIP Report
Reply #14 - Nov 19th, 2018 at 8:39pm
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BC wrote on Nov 19th, 2018 at 8:06pm:
These look like a competent bunch of people:

http://zip.org.nz/who/#whoweare


Looking good and being competent may not be the same thing.

Just look at the Aorangi Forest Park OSPRI aerial 1080 operations, in the Wairarapa, whereby, at least two people set themselves up to look good, while the facts show the aerial 1080 operations did not achieve the results and the Aorangi results do not look good in hindsight.

I'd take getting the job done well, over looking good, every time...BUT...That's just me because I am a old trapper, with false teeth, and experience has taught me that people that smile too much and make lots of promises aren't worth trusting, unless, they back their promises with actions worthy of respect.
  
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